Polish nationalist Nawrocki wins presidency in setback for pro-EU government

Nationalist opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland's presidential election, results showed on Monday, delivering a big blow to the centrist government's efforts to cement Warsaw's pro-European orientation.

In a victory for European conservatives inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, election commission data showed. The outcome presages more political gridlock as he is likely to use his presidential veto to thwart Prime Minister Donald Tusk's liberal policy agenda.

Tusk's government has been seeking to reverse judicial reforms made by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) government that lost power 18 months ago but President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, has blocked those efforts. Nawrocki is likely to continue that pattern as president.

The judicial reforms helped sour relations with Brussels under the PiS government. The European Union's top court ruled that a new procedure for appointing judges did not guarantee their impartiality, opening the way for rulings to be questioned, and Brussels sued Poland after its Constitutional Tribunal questioned the primacy of EU law.

Nawrocki's rival, Rafal Trzaskowski, Tusk's ruling Civic Coalition (KO) candidate, had declared victory immediately after the publication of an exit poll late on Sunday that showed the result would be very close.

"I'm sorry that I didn't manage to convince the majority of citizens of my vision of Poland," Trzaskowski said on X. "I congratulate Karol Nawrocki on winning the presidential election."

Nawrocki, a conservative historian and amateur boxer who was backed by PiS, had presented the vote as a referendum on Tusk's 18-month-old government.

"The referendum on the dismissal of the Tusk government has been won," PiS lawmaker Jacek Sasin wrote on X.

Tusk did not immediately comment on the election outcome. Public and private broadcasters said he would give a televised address at 8.00 p.m. (1800 GMT) on Monday.

Poland's blue-chip stock index had shed around 2% by early afternoon on Monday as investors anticipated more political paralysis. The zloty currency also fell versus the euro.

"Everything was on a knife edge," said 32-year-old IT specialist Patryk Marek. "Feelings are for sure mixed for this moment. But how small this margin was, it tells us how divided we are almost in half as voters."

Nawrocki's success follows two weeks after the election of centrist Nicusor Dan as Romania's president, a result that dealt a blow to hard-right and nationalist forces in central Europe.

Nationalist and eurosceptic politicians in the region congratulated Nawrocki. George Simion, the defeated hard-right candidate in Romania's election, wrote on X "Poland WON" and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed a "fantastic victory".

The result could lend momentum to the Czech Republic's eurosceptic opposition leader Andrej Babis, a former prime minister who leads opinion polls before an October election. Babis offered "warm congratulations" on X.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she was convinced the EU could continue its "very good cooperation" with Poland.

Krzysztof Izdebski, policy director at the Batory Foundation, said the result meant "Trump will have more to say in Polish politics".

Nawrocki, 42, a newcomer to politics who previously ran a national remembrance institute, campaigned on a promise to ensure economic and social policies favour Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine.

He said he would protect Poland's sovereignty and criticised what he said was excessive interference in the country's affairs from Brussels.

While Poland's parliament holds most power, the president can veto legislation, and he may do that over a number of issues. Overriding a presidential veto requires a qualified majority of votes, which Tusk's coalition does not have.

Borys Budka, a KO Member of the European Parliament, said he believed PiS now sought to "overthrow the legal government".

"This may be a big challenge for the government, which will be blocked when it comes to good initiatives," he told state news channel TVP Info.